Economic Analysis

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Economic Analysis examines Australia's $19 trillion in national wealth, the structural inequality that concentrates it, the enormous costs of reactive systems (justice, homelessness, emergency health), and the cost-benefit case for prevention-based resource allocation through OMXUS. The analysis demonstrates that redirecting even a fraction of current punitive spending toward prevention produces dramatically better outcomes at lower cost.

Australia's Wealth

Australia is one of the wealthiest nations in the world by every measure:

Metric Value Source
Total national wealth ~$19 trillion AUD Australian Bureau of Statistics[1]
GDP (2024) ~$2.7 trillion AUD ABS
Median household wealth ~$580,000 AUD ABS Survey of Income and Housing
Mean household wealth ~$1.1 million AUD ABS
Superannuation assets ~$3.9 trillion AUD APRA
Residential property value ~$10.7 trillion AUD ABS
Population ~27 million ABS

Australia's wealth per capita is among the highest globally -- consistently ranked in the top five by Credit Suisse's Global Wealth Report.[2]

The Inequality Problem

Despite this wealth, Australia has significant and growing inequality:

The Gini Coefficient

The Gini coefficient measures income inequality on a scale from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality). Australia's Gini coefficient for disposable income is approximately 0.33 -- higher than the OECD average of 0.31, and significantly higher than Nordic countries (0.26-0.28).[3]

For wealth (as opposed to income), the picture is far worse. The Gini coefficient for wealth in Australia is approximately 0.65 -- meaning wealth is roughly twice as unequally distributed as income.

Wealth Distribution

Quintile Share of Total Wealth Average Wealth per Household
Top 20% 63% of all wealth ~$3.5 million
Second 20% 21% ~$1.15 million
Third 20% 12% ~$660,000
Fourth 20% 4% ~$220,000
Bottom 20% Less than 1% ~$36,000[4]

The top 20% of Australian households hold 63 times the wealth of the bottom 20%.

Poverty Amid Plenty

  • 1 in 8 Australians (3.3 million people) live below the poverty line
  • 1 in 6 children (over 760,000) live in poverty[5]
  • 122,000+ people are homeless on any given night
  • Australia has $19 trillion in wealth and 1 in 6 kids in poverty. The math does not fail. The system does.

The Cost of Reactive Systems

Australia spends enormous sums on systems that react to problems rather than preventing them:

Justice System: $32 Billion Per Year

Component Annual Cost (AUD) Key Metric
Police services ~$14.5 billion 72,000+ police officers
Courts and judicial ~$3.2 billion 700,000+ cases per year
Corrections (prisons) ~$6.8 billion ~42,000 prisoners[6]
Community corrections ~$1.3 billion 75,000+ people on orders
Legal aid and services ~$2.1 billion Chronically underfunded
Juvenile justice ~$1.1 billion Disproportionately Indigenous
Other justice services ~$3.0 billion Various
Total ~$32 billion System that produces 45% recidivism

The cost per prisoner per day is approximately $400 AUD -- or $146,000 per year. This system produces a 45% recidivism rate, meaning nearly half of all prisoners will return to prison. We are spending $146,000 per year per person on a system that fails nearly half the time.[7]

Homelessness: $25,000-$50,000 Per Person Per Year

The cost of homelessness is not just the direct cost of emergency services:

Cost Category Per Homeless Person Per Year Notes
Emergency department visits $8,000-$15,000 4-5x higher than housed population
Hospitalisation $10,000-$20,000 Longer stays, more acute presentations
Mental health crisis services $5,000-$10,000 Untreated conditions escalate
Police and justice contact $5,000-$12,000 Criminalisation of homelessness
Temporary accommodation $3,000-$8,000 Shelters, crisis housing
Total per person $25,000-$50,000+ vs ~$15,000/year for supportive housing[8]

Housing First programs -- providing stable housing without preconditions -- consistently demonstrate that it is cheaper to house people than to leave them homeless. Every dollar spent on supportive housing saves $1.50-$2.50 in emergency services, hospitalisations, and justice system costs.

Child Protection: $12+ Billion Per Year

  • Child protection investigations: ~$4.5 billion
  • Out-of-home care: ~$6 billion (for ~46,000 children)
  • Related services: ~$2 billion
  • Cost per child in out-of-home care: ~$130,000/year

Indigenous children are 10 times more likely to be in out-of-home care than non-Indigenous children -- a continuation of removal policies that echoes the Stolen Generations.[9]

Mental Health: $15+ Billion Per Year

  • Direct healthcare costs: ~$10 billion
  • Lost productivity: ~$12 billion
  • Disability support: ~$3 billion
  • Most mental health conditions are treatable and many are preventable through addressing social determinants

Cost-Benefit: Prevention vs Punishment

The economic case for prevention is overwhelming:

Intervention Cost Return on Investment Timeframe
Early childhood education (0-5) $8,000-$15,000/child/year $4-$17 returned per $1 invested[10] 20-40 years
Housing First $15,000/person/year $1.50-$2.50 saved per $1 spent Immediate
Needle and syringe programs $240 million total (AU) $27 returned per $1 invested 10 years
Community mental health $5,000-$10,000/person/year $2-$5 saved per $1 spent 1-5 years
Drug treatment (vs incarceration) $5,000-$15,000/person/year $4-$7 saved per $1 spent 1-3 years
Family support programs $3,000-$8,000/family/year $3-$6 saved per $1 spent 5-15 years
Prison $146,000/person/year 45% recidivism (net negative return) Ongoing failure

James Heckman's Nobel Prize-winning research demonstrated that every dollar invested in quality early childhood programs for disadvantaged children returns $4-$17 through reduced crime, higher earnings, better health, and reduced welfare dependence.[11]

The $19 Trillion Solution

A National Reset

Australia holds approximately $19 trillion in national wealth. By leveraging a fraction of this wealth through OMXUS governance, a restructuring becomes possible:

Allocation Amount Purpose
Debt Eradication $786.815 billion Clear all federal and state debts instantly
Government Prepayment $5.29 trillion Fund all government operations for 5 years (~$1.05T annually)
Citizen Allocation $12.92 trillion Direct redistribution to all Australians

Universal Redistribution

Adults (20 and over) -- Total package: $416,000:

  • 25% ($104,000): Income-producing assets such as business shares or ownership
  • 25% ($104,000): Housing security allocation
  • 50%: Weekly income of $800 for five years as universal basic income

Youth (Under 20) -- Total package: $416,000:

  • 25% ($104,000): Family-controlled business and housing assets
  • $400 weekly direct payments
  • 50% ($208,000): Trust reserved for future access (housing, education, or business)

Immediate Societal Impact

  1. Zero National Debt -- All outstanding public financial obligations cleared
  2. Five-Year Government Security -- Public services operate without financial strain
  3. Universal Income -- Every adult receives guaranteed income, housing, and business equity
  4. Work by Choice -- Employment becomes centred around passion rather than survival
  5. Reduced Crime -- Economic stability removes motives for desperation-driven harm

Root Cause Economics

"Scarcity is a design variable, not a natural law."

Where basic needs are precarious:

  • Stress loads rise -- producing the health outcomes documented in Health Research
  • Short-termism prevails -- people cannot plan when they cannot eat
  • Systems default to control and punishment -- because desperate people are harder to govern
  • Crime becomes rational -- when legal pathways to survival are blocked

The $19 Trillion Solution converts national wealth into steady, auditable flows that lower baseline risk -- so people can act from stability rather than desperation.

This is not charity. It is risk engineering at societal scale.

Connection to Crime Elimination

When basic needs are met and financial security is guaranteed, the conditions that produce most crime disappear:

Crime Category % of Total Crime Root Cause Prevention Mechanism
Property crime ~60% Economic need Universal economic security
Drug-related crime ~15-20% Prohibition + addiction Decriminalization + treatment
Fraud and financial crime ~10% Economic pressure Reduced financial desperation
Violence (domestic) ~5-8% Stress, substance abuse, learned patterns Environmental design, support services
Violence (other) ~3-5% Various (often economic/substance-related) Multi-factor prevention
Remaining ~2-5% Complex individual factors Empathy-based community response

The Three Pillars of Crime Elimination

1. Addressing Scarcity-Based Crime

Economic security eliminates the root cause of the majority of crime. When everyone has housing, income, and assets, theft, property crime, and fraud become irrational.

2. Drug-Related Crime Resolution

Full legalisation and regulation eliminates black markets and associated violence. The Swiss model demonstrates 82% crime reduction among participants.

3. Meeting Emotional Needs

With basic security established, society can focus on:

  • Time for family connection and community building
  • Resources for mental health and personal development
  • Opportunity for meaningful work and contribution
  • Space for creativity and self-expression
  • Structured empathy development

International Comparisons

Country Gini (Income) Social Spending (% GDP) Incarceration Rate (per 100k) Homicide Rate (per 100k)
Norway 0.26 25.3% 54 0.5
Denmark 0.28 28.3% 72 0.8
Finland 0.27 28.7% 51 1.2
Australia 0.33 17.8% 170 0.9
United Kingdom 0.35 20.6% 130 1.2
United States 0.39 18.7% 531 6.3[12]

The pattern is consistent: nations with lower inequality, higher social spending, and stronger prevention systems have lower crime, better health, higher trust, and greater wellbeing. The evidence base for this is extensive and reviewed comprehensively in Wilkinson and Pickett's The Spirit Level.[13]

OMXUS Implementation

OMXUS implements economic restructuring through:

  • Direct democratic control over resource allocation -- communities decide spending priorities through proximity-weighted voting
  • Bitcoin-anchored transparency -- every dollar is tracked on an immutable ledger
  • Prevention-first budgeting -- constitutional requirement to fund prevention before punishment
  • Universal economic security -- guaranteed income, housing, and assets as system defaults
  • Continuous evaluation -- real-time outcome data drives resource reallocation

See Also

References

  1. Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2024). Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product. ABS Cat. No. 5206.0.
  2. Credit Suisse Research Institute. (2023). Global Wealth Report 2023. Credit Suisse.
  3. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2024). Income Inequality (Indicator). OECD Data.
  4. Australian Council of Social Service. (2023). Inequality in Australia 2023. ACOSS/UNSW Sydney.
  5. Australian Council of Social Service. (2023). Poverty in Australia 2023. ACOSS/UNSW Sydney.
  6. Productivity Commission. (2024). Report on Government Services 2024: Justice. Australian Government.
  7. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (2023). The Health of Australia's Prisoners 2022. AIHW.
  8. Flatau, P., et al. (2008). The Cost-Effectiveness of Homelessness Programs. Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.
  9. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (2024). Child Protection Australia 2023-24. AIHW.
  10. Heckman, J. J. (2006). Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science, 312(5782), 1900-1902.
  11. Heckman, J. J., Moon, S. H., Pinto, R., Savelyev, P. A., & Yavitz, A. (2010). The rate of return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program. Journal of Public Economics, 94(1-2), 114-128.
  12. World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators. The World Bank Group.
  13. Wilkinson, R., & Pickett, K. (2009). The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better. Allen Lane.